Similar to last week, the DDR2 price level continued to trend downwards. The DDR2 512Mb eTT slipped from US$0.95 on Nov 12 to US$0.93 on Nov 19, down by roughly 2.1%. A point worthy of paying attention to is the price of the DDR2 1Gb eTT, where it dropped from US$2.10 on Nov 12 to USD1.91 on Nov 19, down by roughly 9.0%. It can evidently be seen that the DDR2 1Gb ett spot price has slipped past the US$2.0 level. In terms of the market trend, although the DDR2 512Mb eTT price levels appears to have grown more stable, amid the sluggish demand and rapid price declines in the DDR2 1Gb eTT, the DDR2 512Mb eTT chip price may fall below the US$0.9 level.
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As projected by DRAMeXchange, the DDR2 eTT spot price slipped past US$1.0 last week. The DDR2 512Mb eTT declined from US$1.03 on Nov 5 to USD0.95 on Nov 12, down by roughly 7.7%. In the branded chip segment, the spot price dropped from US$1.13 on Nov 5 to US$1.06 on Nov 12, down by roughly 6.1%. As the low-price modules from branded manufacturers continued to influence the market, the DDR2eTT spot price was still unstable. Coupled by the sluggish demand and high inventory levels, the DDR2eTT chip price may fall below the US$0.9 level.
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The three major module vendors of Taiwan -- ADATA, Transcend, and PQI, each has different management policy and sales strategy. ADATA place equal emphasis on its own branding as well as OEM sales and aggressively develop FLASH products and expand its market share. Transcend excels in managing its branded products, creating new frontier within low gross margin. PQI focuses its attention on creating trendy product especially in the FLASH sector. Their difference in sales strategy yielded different financial results. DRAMeXchange will perform a multifaceted analysis of their management performance.
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Price of 512Mb eTT, that closed at US$1.05 on October 29 after a short-lived rebound, should head south towards US$1 point in near term, according to DRAMeXchange. While price volatility is still severe in the spot market, magnitude of price fluctuation in the contract market is relatively stable. DRAMeXchange projects that only limited price drop will be seen at the contract market during late 2007.
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Bucking against the persisting price declines, the eTT spot price underwent a sharp increase last week, where the DDR2 512Mb eTT jumped from USD 1.03 on Oct 15 to USD 1.17 on Oct 22, a WoW increase of 11.9%. By contrast, minimal fluctuations were seen in the branded DRAM chip prices. Amid the eTT rebound, prices increased merely by 1.4%. According to market observers, the price jump in the DDR2 eTT stemmed from the ongoing 70nm process transition by major suppliers, which resulted in a smaller production output. In addition, the prices were also buoyed by the strategic chip purchases from some buyers. Apparently, the latest spot price rebound was mainly due to an increase in market activity, and not the result of a rise in the end demand. Meanwhile, as the chip buying was mainly concentrated in the DDR2 eTT segment, it did not help drive up the branded chip prices. As for the near-term market outlook, some observers believe a huge supply increase will be seen in the DDR2 eTT, rendering it to fall back to the USD 1 level. Separately, in the DDR 512Mb segment, amid stable demand, the price closed at USD 2.51 on Oct/22, down by 5.9%.
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Similar to last week, the DDR2 price continued to spiral downwards, while for the DDR, prices slightly edged up, due to a DDR shortage. After slipping to USD 1, the DDR2 512Mb eTT rebounded slightly, hovering between the USD 1.02~1.05 level. On Oct/15, the DDR2 512Mb 667Hz closed at USD 1.35, down by 2.9% from USD 1.39 on Oct/8. Separately, the DDR2 512Mb eTT declined from USD 1.09 to USD 1.03, down by 5.5%. In the DDR1 market, in light of a supply shortfall in the spot market, prices climbed slightly higher. The average price of the DDR 512Mb 400MHz closed at USD 2.66 on 10/15, up by 5.6% WoW. With the momentum behind a spot market rebound remaining weak, the trend is expected to continue for next week.
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Due to China's National Day holidays and persisting weak demand, trading in the spot market remained sluggish, which further drove down prices. On Oct/8, the DDR2 512Mb 667MHz closed at USD 1.39, down by 4.1% from USD 1.45 on Oct/1. Meanwhile, the DDR2 512Mb eTT declined from USD 1.23 to USD 1.09, down by 11.4%. As stated during last week’s report, the small rebound in the spot price did not last long. Although the inventory levels of traders remain healthy, with contract prices still falling, and the relatively high level of inventory in the overall market players, the intention of buying is weak.
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The DRAM spot price rebounded from the earlier declines seen during the beginning of last week. Between the 9/26 and 10/1 period, although the DDR2 512Mb 667MHz declined 2.03% to USD 1.45, the DDR2 512Mb eTT climbed from USD 1.17 to USD 1.23, up by 5.13%. The spot price rebound can be attributed to two main reasons—(1) Prices bottoming up from the previous low of USD 1.10. (2) Due to the severe price decline, Hynix announced on 9/28 it has temporarily stopped supplying chips to the spot market. Nevertheless, with the DDR2 512Mb eTT daily average price now very near the daily low of the DDR2 512Mb 667MHz, if the major chip prices do not increase, it will hamper further price increases in the spot market.
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In the spot market, demand in the new emerging markets are picking up ahead of China's National Day holidays. Unfortunately, spot prices are not increasing correspondingly. Some module houses and retailers continue to sell their memory products at very low prices. Last week, the DDR2 eTT and branded chip prices respectively hit a low of USD1.15 and USD 1.48.
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Amid the weak DRAM spot market, prices continued to slump. The DDR2 512Mb 667MHz declined to USD 1.54, a drop of 7.8%. The same downward price pressure could be seen in other chip densities, where the DDR2 eTT slipped to USD 1.31. Prices have been on a declining trend since August, due to sluggish market demand, and a wait and see attitude from both buyers and sellers. However, after the DDR2 eTT fell through the low point experienced in May, some retailers and module houses have begun to increase their inventory levels. This helped bring up the spot prices last Thursday, which also indirectly improved the overall market buying.
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