As DRAM
makers aggressively build new 300mm fabs and ramp up more
capacity in existing 300mm fabs, the 200mm production will
soon lose cost competitiveness on commodity DRAM, which applies
the most advanced technology to keep cost down. Many DRAM
makers have developed new strategies on 200mm production.
Samsung
has diversified its product mix to take advantage of new demand
growth in mobiles and consumer electronics. Driven by strong
growth in demand for handsets, digital still camera and USB
flash drive, NAND flash posted a 180% bit growth in 2003 and
is expected to expand 180% in 2004 as ASP declines 20% per
quarter.
With a
staggering 180% bit growth in NAND flash and a 50% bit growth
in DRAM, Samsung's NAND flash bit shipment will exceed DRAM
bit shipment by the fourth quarter of 2004. The non-DRAM portion
in terms of revenues is expected to grow to 48% percent in
2004 from 33% in 2003.
Likewise,
Hynix has allocated more capacity to system IC and NAND flash.
In 2004 Q2 sales report, the system IC contributed 17% and
SRAM/Flash accounted for 5% of the company's total sales.
With an aggressive expansion in the NAND flash market, Hynix's
wafer input for flash memory chips has increased to 35K in
June 2004 from 20K in March 2004 and is expected to reach
40K soon.
Micron's
non DRAM business accounts for about 15 percent of its total
revenues and a big chunk of it comes from CMOS. Micron has
projected to sell 40 million to 60 million sensors for mobile
phones in 2004. With a monthly capacity of 200K 200mm, Micron
has to expand its new product lines to increase the profit
margin and diversify the risk. CMOS proved to be a good solution
to Micron.
As for
Taiwanese DRAM makers, Powerchip plans to increase its non-DRAM
revenues by allocating 40% of its capacity to foundry. Powerchip
will continue to diversify its product portfolio to consumer
RAM, ASIC, CMOS, Flash and system IC. ProMOS also aims to
increase its foundry portion from 15K in Q2 2004 to 25K in
Q4 2004, mostly for Pseudo SRAM and low power SDRAM. Nevertheless,
Nanya plans to keep its focus on commodity DRAM with foundry
only taking up 10% of its capacity in 2004.
As demand
for mobile solutions and communications grows, DRAM applications
will be broader and not limited to the person computer sector.
Higher margin in non-DRAM products will motivate DRAM makers
continue to diversify their product portfolio in the future.
List 1 DRAM
spot prices
|
|
2004/7/27 |
2004/7/28 |
2004/7/29 |
2004/7/30 |
2004/8/2 |
2004/8/3 |
Change |
|
256Mb 32Mx8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DDR400 |
4.63 |
4.58 |
4.57 |
4.56 |
4.55 |
4.47 |
-3.46% |
|
DDR333 |
4.54 |
4.45 |
4.45 |
4.44 |
4.42 |
4.39 |
-3.30% |
|
DDR266 |
4.53 |
4.56 |
4.56 |
4.45 |
4.42 |
4.39 |
-3.09% |
|
SDRAM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1Mx16/166 |
1.00 |
0.98 |
0.96 |
0.95 |
0.94 |
0.93 |
-7.00% |
|
4Mx16/166 |
2.55 |
2.49 |
2.41 |
2.35 |
2.33 |
2.29 |
-10.20% |
|
8Mx16/133 |
4.09 |
4.07 |
4.05 |
4.03 |
4.01 |
3.97 |
-2.93% |
|
16Mx16/133 |
4.45 |
4.45 |
4.45 |
4.43 |
4.42 |
4.42 |
-0.67% |
|
16Mx8/133 |
4.32 |
4.28 |
4.26 |
4.26 |
4.24 |
4.24 |
-1.85% |
|
32Mx8/133 |
4.42 |
4.42 |
4.42 |
4.41 |
4.40 |
4.38 |
-0.90% |