Outlook looking fairly bleak this week.

:: Spot prices slop down.

From March 27th to April 8, the party leaders made decisions, and the rank-and-file members followed their marching orders, prices were hiked up 17% from $3.15 to $3.7 for DDR 256Mb (266MHz). Following this period, things have gone rapidly downhill from April 8 to April 15, price has fallen down 8% from $3.7 to $3.38 for the same chip. The u-turn in prices is due mainly to profit-taking among the middle channels. As the real end-demand remains soft across the globe, noone at the party would dare to insist on price busting and resisted taking some profits away immediately. However, the transaction volumes have shrank on the spot market as prices dipped below $3.40. The big volume transactions are most likely by particular buyers taking special deals rather than being spread over the spot market to ruin the prices. Therefore, some parties could boost another short-run up tick in prices sometime in the near future. While the spot market sentiment remains fragile right now, we don't expect a sharp turn within this week - price is likely trading downward but hopely above the floor price of $3 for 256Mb DDR.

:: Contract prices conversely have improved.

In contrast, in the contract based market, the DRAM makers' sentiment is setting to float price above fully loaded cost (which is at best still above $4 for 256Mb chip right now). The oligopolisitic situation could help prices incline upwards to a slightly higher and more stabilized set of prices. Contract price could be able to rise from current high $30~$32 up to high $32~$34 for DDR 256MB module although we are not sure that the deal volume will consistently grow with prices or be revised down. SDRAM contract prices should remain unchanged since the stable supply/demand relationship exists between supplier and buyers.

:: Ambivalence for May

Intel puts the faster front side bus Pentium 4 (supporting FSB 800MHz, HT functions, $417 in 1,000 unit lots) on hold which probably will just be able to deliver around 5,000 pieces in Apr and May. PC markers and channels could only get Intel 875P chipset (also known as Canterwood, w/ RAID price is at $53, w/o RAID is $50) to ship with motherboard (FOB price is above $150 with 875P chipset) which can dub the shipment of new chipset. As the price level for 875P are setting for performance PC, marketers don't expect huge volume shipment at moment even it's dual channels required. Instead, they are putting hope on 865 serial chipset (previous code-named Springdale) with motherboard at $100 level prices which will be the main stream PC. The prices now are expecting as 865G with MB at $100~$110 FOB price level and 865P with MB at range of $80~$90. Since the MBs already ready for shipping to endorse PC company for the new spec. promotion, it creates the new ambivalence on DRAM spot market sentiment for May - will prices soar up for that or will not?