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【Market View】NAND was the king of downtrend? Not for long!


Published Nov.17 2004,10:28 AM (GMT+8)

*By Jeff Chen, Marketing Intelligence Team, DRAMeXchange

Last week in the spot market, there is barely nothing serious to mention on the DRAM side. But in the NAND spot market, after a long period of price dropping, the spot prices started a strong rebound from Monday on. For example, the 4G NAND spot average price surged up 5.27% from the recently lowest average price of $35.28 on Nov. 4th to the peak $37.14 last Thursday, Nov 11th. But the bullish uptrend lasted only momentarily and ended on Friday.

How hot was the NAND market last week? Here is an answer form some phenomenon around us. A joke told by a trader from DRAMeXchange said, e should change our company name to FLASHeXchange !?, with a sarcastic smile, since the DRAM spot market was so quiet and NAND was heavily traded. The reason of the up going price of NAND was that inventory in the market had been consumed created a short term shortage last week. The rebound was terminated on Friday and there is a big chance that the NAND spot price will go back to its downtrend again because the previous demand was met and further shipments of NAND are coming this week or next.

In the DRAM spot market, the price had started declining at the end of October as expected. Not many deals were made last week since no buyer had the guts and no seller really wanted to realize their loss by selling their inventory with such low price since there is no severe real oversupply to create such a motivation of dumping. The world wide motherboard shipment stays about stable in November. It seems that the fundamental situation is quite under our previous expectation. The DRAM spot price should be with a softly declining manner in the near future unless something serious takes place. The DRAM spot market was cold and quiet last week, the price remained slightly down.

The low density SDRAM kept dropping last week. 1Mx16 and 4Mx16 are still in the price downtrend, meanwhile the prices dropped 3% and 3~5% respectively.
This market had been dealing with inventory problems since May. The price of low density SDRAM reached the peak and ended the uptrend because of the vendors?over optimistic. No matter IDM, design house, or agency, most of them still have inventory problem now only as a matter of severity. Once this situation exists, the price hardly has a chance to revive soon.