| DRAMeXchange> Weekly Research> February 24 to March 2 : DDR slightly up while SDRAM unchanged |
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【Market View】February 24 to March 2 : DDR slightly up while SDRAM unchanged
Published
Mar.03 2004,09:11 AM (GMT+8)
February 24 to March 2 : DDR slightly up while SDRAM unchanged
DDR pricing supported by limited supply
From February 24 to March 2, spot prices for DDR 256Mbit ( 32Mx8) 400MHz, 333MHz, 266MHz are up 1.13%, 1.21% and 0.99% to $4.47, $4.17 and $4.10 respectively.
In past week, supply is still limited in spot market. Buyers are looking for low prices parts to take in for inventory. Most of them are unwilling to take parts higher than market prices, however, supported by limited supply, the sellers don’t want to offer the parts lower, neither. The trading activities are slow but the demand is getting better. DDR 8Mx16 /16Mx16 are trading actively by shortage expectation. UTT supply is short and traded above $4.0.
According to seasonal pattern, demand usually to pick up in March and push the prices up after slow January and February. As now, DRAM makers show that PC OEMs’ forecast for March is better than February. Generally, in the first half of the month, the DRAM makers sales are focus on shipments to OEMs and allocate the parts to spot market on the second half. Therefore, we estimate the spot prices will go up slightly for the first half and whether to sustain will depend on the supply for the second half after PC OEMs’ booking.
As more capacities allocated to flash and the yield rate on 0.11um is far below expectation, DRAM bit growth is quite low in Q1 and will remain so for the first half year. Certain PC OEMs worry the shortage will get worse for the second half year and consider whether to locate an entry point for strategic procurement. If PC OEMs do so, DDR prices will get support and the downside is limited in slow Q2. However, PC OEMs still hold flexibility to control the memory budget ratio by reducing 512MB installment ratio to limit the pricing upside unless they believe the DRAM shortage to be worse to threaten DRAM supply and cause their PC shipment delayed. According to our checks with channels, we don’t expect the prices move up sharply in short term but will be supported at current level.
1H March Contract prices expected to be up
DRAM makers intend to increase the contract prices up 3% to 5% for 1H March contract prices. We have heard most makers offering higher prices, however, the increased prices not to be accepted by PC OEMs yet.
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