Get Cold Feet in the warm May?

Although the weather is approaching warm May, DRAM marketers actually feel cool in May.

Uncertainty- Micron/Hynix

Micron and Hynix eventually can't get dust settled down yet. More uncertainty situations will come alone with currently breaking up deal. Hynix can't easily survive without further improvement in finance situation. We believe there will be other talks or actions have to be brought out. No more easier bailout, Hynix has to find a way out.

Getting close - Infineon/Nanya

While Micron/Hynix is still struggling/fighting with those complicated deals/shareholders, the other alliance between Infineon and Nanya seems getting seamless. Join Venture for new 12" fab seems very likely to do.

Spot slumps under $3

Weak demand plus no good news make market price slumps under $3. It will keep falling until big Module makers get into market to purchase at low price as their low cost inventory. Most of marketers still believe May will be the price bottom; June will begin to rise again. Checking point? $2.5 - manufacture cost of most DRAM makers?

Contract will also go down

Contract, no doubt, is going to slip down with the spot. Some OEM contract customers have been pushed to buy more by the end of this month (April). Major brand 256MB (16Mbx16 based So-DIMM) is already down under $70. There will be a difficult time for negotiating price and volume as they already took too much in inventory.

Cold market

China will have a week off for labors' holiday. DRAM makers' inventory have been built up, have the pressure for unloading those heavy inventory. Motherboard has released under predicting earning. Hynix's situation is uncertainty.

Price is not looking good, market is not looking good. It will be a little bit cold market in May unless there are something new happening. Good thing is weather is getting warm; everyone is waiting for hot season to come.