As the Chinese New Year long vacation approaches, the NAND Flash market is currently experiencing a wait-and-see atmosphere. As some downstream clients still have enough inventory on-hand, most clients are unwilling to significantly increase purchase volume prior to the holiday. Instead, they are choosing to reduce risk by waiting until after Chinese New Year to replenish inventory based on holiday sales results.
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According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, 1HJan. contract price stayed flat. Average DDR3 4GB and DDR3 2GB prices held at US$16.5 and US$9.25, respectively. However, concluded transaction prices are gradually transitioning from low to average figures. Not only will the capacity cuts from 2H11 take effect in 1H12, but current contract prices are still at historic lows.
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Heading into the end of 2011, Elpida’s financial difficulties were revealed. Rumors abounded, not only of Elpida seeking a bailout from the Japanese government, but also of Toshiba stepping up to take over.
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According to TrendForce, as the market status remains unclear, some suppliers and buyers are not seeing eye-to-eye on price negotiations. Therefore, with few concluded transactions, 2HDec. mainstream NAND Flash MLC contract price fell by 3-8% compared to 1HDec.
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According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, while the market has entered the traditionally weak PC shipment season, compared with 1HDec., 2HDec. contract price showed a flat price trend. DDR3 4GB and DDR3 2GB ASP was US$16.5 and US$9.25, respectively. It is the end of the year, and the long and slow contract price decline that has been taking place since 2H11 is finally showing signs of stabilizing. Average 2Gb chip price stayed at the US$0.88 level.
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Impacted by the European debt crisis, the 4Q11 holiday peak sales season for electronic products was expected to be weaker than usual. Therefore, although NAND flash price already decreased significantly in 3Q11 (some system clients’ OEM order demand recovered slightly in September and October), price continued to fall gradually in 4Q11.
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According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, as the effects of the Thailand flood disaster on the HDD industry linger and the traditional slow season for PC shipments has arrived, contract price for 1HDec. remains on a downtrend. Average DDR3 4GB price fell to US$16.5, a decrease of approximately 6%, while average DDR3 2GB price reached US$9.25, a near 3% decrease.
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According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, rush orders for SSD began to turn up in November as a result of the Thailand Flood, which compromised the HDD supply. However, the shipments of end-market products, including PC, smartphone and tablet PC, continued to drop. In addition, the memory card sales have been plunging on account of the periled digital camera supply affected by the Thailand Flood
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According to the survey conducted by DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, affected by the economy downturn, the Japan Earthquake and the Thailand Flood, the notebook industry sees a mere 1% YoY growth in 2011. However, Ultrabook and the launch of Windows 8 in 2012 are expected to spur an 8.8% YoY growth for the notebook industry in 2012.
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According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, due to the PC slow season and the HDD supply chain afflicted by the Thailand flood, the downtrend of the contract price persisted in 2H'11: the ASP of DDR3 4GB dropped by 7.9% to US$ 17.5, while DDR3 2GB ASP plunged below US$ 10 to US$ 9.5, a 7.3% decline. From the market perspective, due to the weak demand for PC in November – some PC OEMs' orders were even cancelled –, the market remained slow.
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