DDR2 crossover at spot and contract markets arrive

DRAM spot prices swell up considerably last week with eTT (UTT) leaded the raise at a sequential growth of 8.8%. DDR2 finally enjoyed the crossover with its contract quotes and the price upturn has boosted DXI to 3,800 from 3,661. The bullish DDR2 price trend for both spot and contract markets is expected to maintain through Sept on the seasonality demand upbeat.

The upward price trend of DDR2 was sustained by various bullish speculations. Price of DDR2 667MHz went up by 7.3% to US$5.30 while the same-spec. eTT (UTT) price had even exceed branded chips after gaining 8.8% growth and closed at US$5.33. Price of eTT (UTT) DDR2 chips are more sensitive to price fluctuation upon its relatively larger transaction volume at the spot market.

Since the price of DDR2 grew considerably and DDR's growth momentum is reaching bottleneck, the price gains of DDR in last week were comparatively limited. Both prices of DDR 256Mb 32x8 400MHz chips, either branded or eTT, closed at US$2.85, representing a growth of 2.2% and 3.3% respectively. Price of high-density 512Mb chip had also grown by 2.0% at US$5.71.

Motherboard makers indicate that they observe warming up DRAM demand from early Aug along with the upcoming seasonality demand upbeat. Those PC OEMs whom prepare stock for Christmas also encourage demand. The anticipated pick-up in motherboard shipment through Sept (Aug MoM up 9.9%) should further spur DRAM demand and prices. Escalating demand for DDR2 chips and the aggressive stock procurement among distributors and memory module makers should heat up the demand for DDR2 667MHz.

For the supply side, DRAM output is still under constrains and the shortage will supply larger room for further price growth. DRAMeXchange anticipates that the shortage will aggregate in Sept and help boosting contract prices up.

NAND Flash transaction grows tepid

NAND Flash spot price trend rebounds after weeks of price correction. DRAMeXchange observes that some density chips even reported shortage. Although the market is fill with positive signs again, concrete price projection is unlikely to be made as suppliers' strategy and the inventory digestion still mist our projection.

NAND Flash price trend swings upward last week after three weeks' price correction. The climate veers from listless to buoyant with shortage for 4Gb being observed from Aug 21. Some sellers whom raised quotes for 4Gb parts amid the keep-growing demand boosted the entire price trend upward. Transaction grew tepid on Aug 23-24 and the price adjustment was spread through other density parts later. Price correction for all density parts (except for 4Gb) arrived again on Aug 25 with price downs being observed.

The present NAND Flash market is still filling with uncertainties with most industry players still digesting their excess inventory. Those positive rumors/speculations are not strong enough to stop the falling price trend and it still takes time to assess a concrete timing for the ease of inventory. DRAMeXchange projects that only cautious supply strategy, couple with reasonable inventory level, could spur price trend up during the upcoming seasonality upturn. September will still be an index to observe the forward price trend.