By Joyce Yang
Limited supply of eTT parts boosted eTT price up to $2.30
With a continuous limited supply of eTT(UTT) parts to spot market, eTT price surged from $2.20 to $2.30 in past week as many module houses tried to purchase in more eTT parts for inventory. Also, we have seen a speculative demand involved as more traders hold the eTT parts on-hand in anticipation of uptrend prices. However, eTT prices dropped a bit to the range of $2.26 to $2.27 today as some traders' profit taking action.
DDR2 512Mb's premium over DDR 512Mb shrink to only 5%
With increasing demand on DDR 512MB in spot market, DDR 512Mb has gained higher popularity in past weeks, the price has been up to $5.16 in June 28 from $5.02 in June 21. However, DDR2 512Mb 533MHz price continue to go down to $5.42 from $5.48 as market expect a further lower prices in the near future. The DDR2 512Mb premium over DDR 512Mb has shrank to 5% currently from 30% in the beginning of 2005. We believe DDR2 512Mb spot prices will continue trending down and even cross below DDR 512Mb in the third quarter.
DRAM capacity continue to shift to NAND flash in 2H 2005
According to our regular checking with all DRAM makers, we've observed the one Korean DRAM maker has aggressively allocated more DRAM capacity to Nand flash. The wafer-in of its Nand flash in the fourth quarter is to increase to three times of its wafer-in in the first quarter. Therefore, its DRAM supply bit growth will be seriously dampened from the end of the third quarter. Though 90nm will be applied in DRAM starting the third quarter, we don't expect a mature yield rate in the initial migrating stage.
Beside, USA and European DRAM makers also have plans to double their Nand flash wafer-in since the third quarter. Though, their current capacities for NAND flash are still in low level and won't count much impact on the DRAM supply in the fourth quarter.
According to DRAMeXchange Market Intelligence, DRAM supply bit growth for 2H 2005 will be slower than the bit growth in 1H 2005. With an expectation of PC OEMs seasonal and inventory build demand in the third quarter, we've projected a shortage of DRAM supply in August, September and October 2005.
By Judy Chen
NAND Flash-- 256Mb and 512Mb NAND Flash chips dropped up to 3% in spot market this week. We see two reasons behind this. First, one of the major NAND Flash suppliers changed its capacity allocation strategies from few to more on low density chips. As an example, last Friday, large amount of low density NAND Flash showed up in the spot market making spot price to drop up to 2% in a single day. Second, the one of the Korean suppliers who phased out 512Mb in 120nm back in Q1 has started selling 512Mb in 90nm now. Due to these two reasons, low density NAND Flash chips' contract prices are lowered and more supply is being offered in the spot market making spot market's high profit margin to distinguish.
Actions are being taken in attempt to stop current spot price down trend by one of the major suppliers!
This weekly's spot price drop for high density NAND Flash still ranges between 4-8% for 2Gb ad above. 1Gb, unlike last week, has remained stable price with no further drops this week due to lack of supply in the spot market. Spot prices for high density chips have dropped a lot since mid May, thus we have seen actions taken by the major NAND Flash supplier in attempt to stop this price trend. First, we have seen allocation of high density NAND Flash to decrease in attempt to move closer to current demand level. Second, major NAND Flash supplier is close monitoring the chip supplies in the spot market, in hope to decrease the spot market supply in turn to stop current spot price drop.
Low density chips no longer enjoy high profit margin as the past few months!
_940628b.gif)
_940628c.gif)
The memory market watcher
DRAMeXchange is a global primary provider of future intelligences, in-depth analysis reports and advisory services on DRAM and Flash memory industry with coverage including current business, spot trading prices, and market trends, capital spending and wafer capacity trends, the impact of DRAM/flash memory products on the market, and other relevant PC industry information.
© DRAMeXchange ® Tech.Inc. All rights reserved.