DRAMeXchange : Weekly Research : 【Market View】

【Market View】Expect DRAM Demand from China, but How Strong?


Published 2005-02-15 (GMT+8)

By Rickie Yang, Marketing Intelligence Team, DRAMeXchange

Limited transaction during Chinese New Year

Due to Chinese New Year, trading was quiet in the DRAM spot market last week. Following the first contract price drop, we believe that demand from PC OEMs remained weak in the first half of Feb. In the spot market, due to spot price drop in the beginning of Feb, buyers were hesitant to purchase more chips but wait for lower price. Last week, most buyers and sellers from China, Taiwan, and Korea, were on vacation so chips supply and demand was constrained. Averages price of mainstream 256Mb (32Mb*8) 400MHz DDR DRAM declined from US$3.80 on 8th, Feb. to US$3.72 on 15th, Feb.

Good channel sales! Buyers from China will buy chips this week

According to our market survey to China spot market traders, demand from end users was good last week but channel distributors have low inventory level now. In the contract market, PC OEMs expect demand will turn normal in the second half of Feb and DRAM vendors will release chips in control rather than dump them this week. In conclusion, DRAM buyers from China seem to have increasing pressure to purchase chips next week; on the other hand, suppliers will have less pressure than in the first half of Feb. Price trend will be highly depended on how strong the demand will be from China this week.

Quiet NAND Flash spot market

In the NAND Flash market, trading was as quiet as that in the DRAM market. Without most participants from China, Taiwan, and Korea, transaction was limited. NAND Flash spot price remained stable last week. Average price of 2G, 4G and 8G NAND Flash went up to US$18.86, US$32.98, and US$62.3 on 14th, Feb from US$17.84, US$32.41, and US$62.1 on 8th, Feb. Due to the coming DRAM slow season, DRAM players will allocate more capacity to NAND Flash products. We can foresee more NAND Flash supply will show up in the future.


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