The sufficiency of 12 inch fabs and 0.11-mircon process migration revealed by DDR 256Mb average cost figures, $3.02, down 9.3% from $3.33 last quarter, and we forecast the cost for the forth quarter will be down to $2.77, surveyed by DRAMeXchange marketing team. Then, we can see Chart 1 and Chart 2, where is the higher margin coming from? Healthy spot, contract prices and lower cost!
While the supply side runs smoothly, will the demand side be strong enough to lift the whole market up? As for our Market Intelligence database, we predict motherboard shipment for 4Q will increase 5.6% in line with notebook shipment 14.7%. Those figures reflect that we believe prices are going to be drove by PC OEMs sourcing the components from market for the hot season's coming.
Although, in the short term, we hold the optimistic attitude to the whole market; we still worries that rising oil price will shrink consumers' money and drag their purchasing power down, then price will just increase very slowly rather than boost!
Chart 1
Chart 2
*Bonnie Lin, Marketing Intelligence Team, DRAMeXchange
DRAM spot prices - 2004/10/19~2004/10/26
The memory market watcher
DRAMeXchange is a global primary provider of future intelligences, in-depth analysis reports and advisory services on DRAM and Flash memory industry with coverage including current business, spot trading prices, and market trends, capital spending and wafer capacity trends, the impact of DRAM/flash memory products on the market, and other relevant PC industry information.
© DRAMeXchange ® Tech.Inc. All rights reserved.