Sources indicated that Chinese marketers dumped Hynix DDR 256Mb 400/266 MHz parts in the Hong Kong market, pushing the prices of Hynix parts much lower than other major brands. Demand in the U.S. Market has improved. One PC OEM has placed a big order of 200K through its agent in the U.S. market and helped support the prices. Demand in the European market has not picked up yet with most buyers awaiting for a further drop in prices.
Slightly
weaker outlook for PC seasonality
We haven't seen a seasonal pick-up in demand as the summer
promotion in the Chinese market failed to meet expectation,
while most European companies are still on vacation and back-to-school
demand has not emerged yet. Some analysts and market participants
even wonder whether the end markets will be strong or 3Q seasonality
might not happen this year.
According to the forecasts provided to motherboard and notebook manufactures, we still believe seasonality demand will surface, but expect a slower than normal start to the Back-to-School demand. We remain our projection of 16% QoQ growth on motherboards, but revise down our previous estimate of 20% QoQ growth on notebook shipments.
0.11um
migration progresses in 2H 2004
Samsung has 48% of its DRAM output using 0.11-micron technology,
while 49 percent of production utilizing 0.10 um. Micron announced
it has 70% of wafer starts on 0.11um now. Infineon's wafer
in on 0.11um will be around 80% at the end of 2004.
ProMOS won't have parts produced on 0.17um after August and will have 40% of wafer-ins on 0.12um in 3Q. Nanya Tech. will allocate only 10K of 8" wafer in on 0.14um and produce the remaining 61K on 0.11um starting from 3Q.
2H August DDR 256MB contract prices
Instead
of inventory build-up in July to prepare for the hot season,
PC OEMs have reduced their inventory levels since June on
fears of an imminent supply glut as most DRAM makers have
resolved 0.11um migration problems and increased capacity
in their 12" fabs. We believe PC OEMs and channels have
to increase their procurement quantities as demand picks up.
Therefore, the 2H August contract prices can stay flat or
go up slightly.
List 1 DRAM spot prices
| 2004/8/3 | 2004/8/4 | 2004/8/5 | 2004/8/6 | 2004/8/9 | 2004/8/10 | Change | |
| 256Mb 32Mx8 | |||||||
| DDR400 | 4.47 | 4.40 | 4.39 | 4.36 | 4.35 | 4.34 | -2.91% |
| DDR333 | 4.39 | 4.30 | 4.25 | 4.24 | 4.22 | 4.22 | -3.87% |
| DDR266 | 4.39 | 4.31 | 4.26 | 4.26 | 4.21 | 4.16 | -5.24% |
| SDRAM | |||||||
| 1Mx16/166 | 0.93 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 0.89 | 0.88 | 0.87 | -6.45% |
| 4Mx16/166 | 2.29 | 2.18 | 2.12 | 2.05 | 2.02 | 2.00 | -12.66% |
| 8Mx16/133 | 3.97 | 3.95 | 3.93 | 3.92 | 3.90 | 3.93 | -1.01% |
| 16Mx16/133 | 4.42 | 4.41 | 4.39 | 4.38 | 4.39 | 4.45 | 0.68% |
| 16Mx8/133 | 4.24 | 4.25 | 4.23 | 4.22 | 4.21 | 4.21 | -0.71% |
| 32Mx8/133 | 4.38 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.34 | -0.91% |
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