DRAMeXchange : Weekly Research : 【Market View】

【Market View】DRAM makers' strategies on 200mm fabs


Published 2004-08-03 (GMT+8)
As DRAM makers aggressively build new 300mm fabs and ramp up more capacity in existing 300mm fabs, the 200mm production will soon lose cost competitiveness on commodity DRAM, which applies the most advanced technology to keep cost down. Many DRAM makers have developed new strategies on 200mm production.

Samsung has diversified its product mix to take advantage of new demand growth in mobiles and consumer electronics. Driven by strong growth in demand for handsets, digital still camera and USB flash drive, NAND flash posted a 180% bit growth in 2003 and is expected to expand 180% in 2004 as ASP declines 20% per quarter.

With a staggering 180% bit growth in NAND flash and a 50% bit growth in DRAM, Samsung's NAND flash bit shipment will exceed DRAM bit shipment by the fourth quarter of 2004. The non-DRAM portion in terms of revenues is expected to grow to 48% percent in 2004 from 33% in 2003.

Likewise, Hynix has allocated more capacity to system IC and NAND flash. In 2004 Q2 sales report, the system IC contributed 17% and SRAM/Flash accounted for 5% of the company's total sales. With an aggressive expansion in the NAND flash market, Hynix's wafer input for flash memory chips has increased to 35K in June 2004 from 20K in March 2004 and is expected to reach 40K soon.

Micron's non DRAM business accounts for about 15 percent of its total revenues and a big chunk of it comes from CMOS. Micron has projected to sell 40 million to 60 million sensors for mobile phones in 2004. With a monthly capacity of 200K 200mm, Micron has to expand its new product lines to increase the profit margin and diversify the risk. CMOS proved to be a good solution to Micron.

As for Taiwanese DRAM makers, Powerchip plans to increase its non-DRAM revenues by allocating 40% of its capacity to foundry. Powerchip will continue to diversify its product portfolio to consumer RAM, ASIC, CMOS, Flash and system IC. ProMOS also aims to increase its foundry portion from 15K in Q2 2004 to 25K in Q4 2004, mostly for Pseudo SRAM and low power SDRAM. Nevertheless, Nanya plans to keep its focus on commodity DRAM with foundry only taking up 10% of its capacity in 2004.

As demand for mobile solutions and communications grows, DRAM applications will be broader and not limited to the person computer sector. Higher margin in non-DRAM products will motivate DRAM makers continue to diversify their product portfolio in the future.

List 1 DRAM spot prices

　 2004/7/27 2004/7/28 2004/7/29 2004/7/30 2004/8/2 2004/8/3 Change 
256Mb 32Mx8  　 　 　 　 　 　 　
DDR400 4.63 4.58 4.57 4.56 4.55 4.47 -3.46%
DDR333 4.54 4.45 4.45 4.44 4.42 4.39 -3.30%
DDR266 4.53 4.56 4.56 4.45 4.42 4.39 -3.09%
SDRAM 　 　 　 　 　 　 　
1Mx16/166 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 -7.00%
4Mx16/166 2.55 2.49 2.41 2.35 2.33 2.29 -10.20%
8Mx16/133 4.09 4.07 4.05 4.03 4.01 3.97 -2.93%
16Mx16/133 4.45 4.45 4.45 4.43 4.42 4.42 -0.67%
16Mx8/133 4.32 4.28 4.26 4.26 4.24 4.24 -1.85%
32Mx8/133 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.41 4.40 4.38 -0.90%

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