DRAMeXchange : Weekly Research : 【Market View】

【Market View】DDR 256Mb 32Mx8 spot prices may drift in narrow range


Published 2004-07-06 (GMT+8)
The DDR 256Mb 32Mx8 spot prices have been boosted last week by brokers and channel distributors as they saw a tight supply from Samsung and Hynix. However, the end users’ demand hasn’t shown up to support the prices up further. DDR 256Mb 32Mx8 400/333/266MHz were traded at $4.90, $4.84 and $4.86 respectively today.

UTT are traded at $4.7 and Elixir modules are close at $38.3 to $39 of today.

Most channel traders and module housed found it's getting harder to locate Samsung's DDR chips and original modules. One source indicated that Samsung has allocated more capacity to DDR2, DDR 512Mb and SDRAM and has less production output for DDR 256Mb. Another source added that Mosel Vitelic has sold more chips to Kingston Technology and released less parts to spot market.

While prices went up last week, we heard that channels in Chinese market had purchased modules to prepare the hot season, USA module houses searched for DDR 400MHz parts in Asian market, European marketers bought more Elixir modules and Asian module makers' inventory level is below one week.

1H July DDR 256MB contract prices were down from the range of the $39 to $42 to the range of the $38 to $40. Some PC OEMs have lower their procurement as they believe the shortage concern can be lessened since most DRAM makers have resolved the 0.11um migration problem and they would sustain their inventory level around three to four weeks to ease the price going up. From March, many PC OEMs had overbooking as they worried the supply shortage would go worse in the third quarter.

We estimate the 2H July contract prices will keep flat if demand hasn't pick up yet or go up if PC shipment goes stronger as expected.

A good news for Nand flash market that we finally see the Nand flash prices bottom out as Nand Flash 1Gb dropped to $12. Most traders stopped to sell Nand Flash lower as they believe Samsung will keep the 1Gb Nand flash contract price above $13. Currently, the 1Gb Nand flash contract price is around $13.5 to $14.5.

List 1 DRAM spot prices

  2004/6/29 2004/6/30 2004/7/1 2004/7/2 2004/7/5 2004/7/6 Change 
256Mb 32Mx8               
DDR400 4.86 4.94 4.99 5.01 4.98 4.90 0.82%
DDR333 4.72 4.83 4.90 4.94 4.89 4.84 2.54%
DDR266 4.72 4.84 4.90 4.94 4.91 4.86 2.97%
SDRAM              
1Mx16/166 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.16 1.15 -2.54%
4Mx16/166 2.97 2.97 2.96 2.94 2.93 2.91 -2.02%
8Mx16/133 3.96 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.94 3.92 -1.01%
16Mx16/133 4.43 4.45 4.47 4.49 4.48 4.47 0.90%
16Mx8/133 4.20 4.21 4.21 4.20 4.19 4.17 -0.71%
32Mx8/133 4.57 4.57 4.55 4.54 4.50 4.48 -1.97%

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