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【Market View】A glance at Nand flash market ....


Published 2004-05-26 (GMT+8)

A glance at Nand flash market

NAND flash memory offers high density, non-volatile data retention and is widely employed in flash memory cards and as embedded memory in digital consumer products, such as digital still cameras, multifunction cell phones , USB drives, MP3 players, smart handheld devices, game consoles, etc.
 
In the second half of 2003, OEMs had faced shortages and allocation of flash memories. NAND flash has been especially hot as 512Mbit and 1Gbit were driven to $20 and $33, respectively in December, 2003. Then, the prices shed half to $9.6 and $16.16 in today's spot market due to Samsung's increasing capacity, new entrants in the market along with seasonal factors.
 
Tom Quinn, vice president of memory sales and marketing of U.S. unit, Samsung Semiconductor Inc. said  "To keep up with huge OEM demand, Samsung is doubling its flash capacity and rolling out a 90-nm flash line". Being asked when the supply/demand picture for NAND will reach equilibrium, Quinn said "We don't think that will happen until 2005".
 
Toshiba forecasts sales of NAND flash memory chips to rise 80 percent to US$6.30 billion in 2004 from US$3.5 billion in 2003, resulting from 180% bit growth and 35%-40% decline in pricing. Toshiba also expects 30% annual growth from 2003 to US$11 billion in 2007. 
Hynix Semiconductor reports its NAND flash chips of 512Mbit output for May will increase to 3 million units and plans to ramp up to 30K wafer in to then end of 2004.
 
STMicroelectronics is in volume production with both 1-Gbit and 512Mbit NAND flash memory products in 1.8-V and 3.0-V versions. It will start producing NAND at its Singapore 8 inch fab from 2Q05 in addition to ramping capacity at Hynix. It is planning to sample 1Gb and 4Gb NAND in July 2004 on 90nm and ramp 4Gb NAND on 70nm from 2Q05.
 
Infineon has announced the introduction of the 512Mbit Twin flash, based on NORM technology and plans to ramp up to 10K by the end of 2004. Micron has also stated an intention to become a player to have 5K wafer in for 512Mbit NAND flash at the end of 2004. However, we don't see big impact on NAND flash supply by these two companies.
 
Renesas – PowerChip: Renesas has signed an outsourcing deal with PowerChip to produce AG-AND devices for Renesas, starting in the third quarter of 2004. PowerChip will reserve 5K to 10K of 300mm capacity to Renesas, however, it may not reach that allocation due to delayed technology transfer or slow market.                                                    
 
 
List 1 NAND flash spot prices

Density/Date

2003/10/1

2003/11/3

2003/12/1

2004/1/2

2004/2/2

2004/3/1

2004/4/1

2004/5/3

2004/5/25

% change 

512Mbit 

18.1

21.15

20.15

17.58

14.7

12.2

11.8

10.1

9.6

-46.96%

1G 

28.25

34

33.3

30.86

28.52

24.44

22.62

18.3

16.16

-42.80%

List 2 DRAM spot prices

　

2004/5/18

2004/5/19

2004/5/20

2004/5/21

2004/5/24

2004/5/25

Change 

256Mb 32Mx8 

　

　

　

　

　

　

　

DDR400

5.17

5.09

4.99

4.93

4.76

4.76

-7.93%

DDR333

5.01

4.95

4.80

4.75

4.73

4.73

-5.59%

DDR266

4.96

4.87

4.76

4.65

4.62

4.62

-6.85%

SDRAM

　

　

　

　

　

　

　

1Mx16/166

1.43

1.42

1.41

1.39

1.38

1.36

-4.90%

4Mx16/166

3.76

3.75

3.66

3.64

3.58

3.55

-5.59%

8Mx16/133

4.17

4.17

4.18

4.17

4.15

4.12

-1.20%

16Mx16/133

5.04

5.02

5.00

4.98

4.94

4.92

-2.38%

16Mx8/133

4.40

4.40

4.40

4.39

4.38

4.35

-1.14%

32Mx8/133

5.10

5.09

5.10

5.09

5.09

5.08

-0.39%

 

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