DRAMeXchange : Weekly Research : 【Market View】

【Market View】Most of DDR SDRAM parts' spot prices continue...


Published 2004-05-19 (GMT+8)

Most of DDR SDRAM parts' spot prices continue to trend lower, as buyers stick to the sidelines. The groups has come under severe selling pressure over the past month, as concerns over negative spot pricing trend and sluggish demand in slow seasons. Volume levels are uninspiring and telling of participants' lack of conviction in the transactions of spot market.

Concerning the spot pricing performance this past week. DDR 32Mx8 256Mb 400/333/266 MHz dropped 4% to 5% to $5.17, $5.01 and $4.96 respectively. While SDRAM 1Mx16/4Mx16 were down slightly to $1.44 and $3.19. UTT was traded at $4.52 and $4.55. Elixir 256MB modules were around $37 to $38.
 
The market momentum doesn't show a signal that the spot prices will rebound soon. We remain cautious and negative bias on the near- term spot pricing trend. We believe the DDR 32Mx8 spot prices would trend lower to $4.5 and may reach bottom until June as DRAM makers have adjusted the supply allocation portion down to spot market and channel traders have cleared their accumulated inventory on speculation during upswing.
 
We believe spot prices will bounce back to $5 at the second half of 2004 as seasonal demand pick up and most module houses' inventory level is low now. The supply could go tighter as 0.11um migration progress and 300mm ramp-up speed don't go well.  
 
In contrast to spot market, PC OEMs demand remains strong, according to DRAM makers Therefore, we project the 2H May 256MB contract prices to keep flat at the range of $43 to $47 and may keep at high level to the end of 2004.
 

List 1

 

2004/5/11

2004/5/12

2004/5/13

2004/5/14

2004/5/17

2004/5/18

Change 

256Mb 32Mx8 

DDR400

5.36

5.25

5.21

5.21

5.20

5.17

-3.54%

DDR333

5.28

5.18

5.18

5.13

5.10

5.01

-5.11%

DDR266

5.19

5.16

5.06

5.06

5.04

4.96

-4.43%

SDRAM

1Mx16/166

1.44

1.44

1.45

1.44

1.44

1.43

-0.69%

4Mx16/166

3.89

3.91

3.92

3.90

3.79

3.76

-3.34%

8Mx16/133

4.09

4.13

4.17

4.18

4.20

4.17

1.96%

16Mx16/133

5.10

5.11

5.12

5.08

5.06

5.04

-1.18%

16Mx8/133

4.53

4.52

4.46

4.44

4.42

4.40

-2.87%

32Mx8/133

5.10

5.11

5.11

5.10

5.10

5.10

0.00%
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