DRAM pricing trend for March 17 2004 - March 23 2004
DDR prices surged, mainly boosted by the rising 2H March contract prices
The second half of March contract prices were up 5% to 6% by increasing procurement quantities from PC OEMs according to DRAM makers. This has further limited future supply to the spot market and boosted the average DDR 256Mb 32Mx8 400/333/266 MHz spot prices to $5.23, $5.19 and $5.14, up 14.51%, 16.33% and 16.59% respectively from March 17 to 23.
The unexpected soaring DDR spot prices didn’t give a boost to contract prices for January and February even the DDR 256MB contract prices for 256MB have been dragged down 18% in December. The surging spot prices only supported contract prices slightly up because PC OEMs aggressively suppressed the upside of contract prices in seasonal slow season, the first quarter. However, DDR spot prices keep strong upward momentum, somehow for a while, sustain at high pricing level, seems taking a rest to prepare for next shooting. From beginning of this year, DDR spot prices have experienced three strong uptrend waves on January 7-9, January 22 to February 2 and March 17 to 23, up 5%, 12% and 15% respectively. ( see List 1 ).
Trading activities in spot market
The demand from China market is mainly for Hynix 333/266 MHz parts, according to channels in China market, the inventory level in China retailers is quite low. However, today’s hiking prices have stopped Chinese marketers’ buying interest. USA transactions are slow compared to Asian market. Concerning the further impact on spot pricing trend and cost control, some module houses have no quotation offering on modules or limited the orders taken. Original modules get strong demand especially Samsung and Micron. Non-brand modules prices also keep up, Elixir quotes $43 in early market. UTT price keep getting demand from China market and the price spiral up to $5.00.
Another reason to cause spot prices surge again is that some DRAM makers have announced they would have no shipment to spot market to the end of this month due to PC OEMs customers increased procurement quantities. According to trading pattern, March is the month of the first quarter end and DRAM makers usually get pressure to meet their sales revenue goals, hence, dump parts to spot market. However, what we have now is a totally different story which confirms our previous prediction that PC OEMs would try to take more DRAM parts at relative low prices. Regardless many traders and channel distributors are in Cebit show, the market momentum keeps strong and optimistic. Some traders in Hong Kong and China also worried the political unrest surrounding the presidential election in Taiwan would cause any lock in the supply chains and motivate their buying further.
1H April contract prices to increase further
Many expect the 1H April contract prices would increase further by the strong demand from PC OEMs and channels . However, we note that we haven’t seen a significant shipment growth on motherboard and notebooks sections since January. On contrary, notebook shipment has dropped dramatically in January compared to last December. The surging DDR spot prices are driven by the supply constraints and PC OEMs’ strategic procurement for cost control, according to our survey and checks in DRAM industry.
List 1
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|
256Mb 32Mx8 |
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|
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|
DATE |
DDR 400 |
DDR 333 |
DDR 266 |
Change |
|
|
|
|
|
1/7/04~1/9/04 |
3.78~4.00 |
3.69~3.90 |
3.61~3.83 |
5%~6% |
|
|
|
|
|
1/22/04~2/2/04 |
4.00~4.60 |
3.84~4.30 |
3.74~4.22 |
11%~15% |
|
|
|
|
|
3/17/04~3/23/04 |
4.55~5.17 |
4.61~5.19 |
4.34~5.12 |
12%~17% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004/3/16 |
2004/3/17 |
2004/3/18 |
2004/3/19 |
2004/3/22 |
2004/3/23 |
Change |
|
|
256Mb 32Mx8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DDR400 |
4.55 |
4.57 |
4.70 |
4.87 |
5.17 |
5.25 |
15.38% |
|
|
DDR333 |
4.41 |
4.47 |
4.65 |
4.82 |
5.17 |
5.18 |
17.46% |
|
|
DDR266 |
4.34 |
4.42 |
4.61 |
4.73 |
5.12 |
5.15 |
18.66% |
|
|
SDRAM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1Mx16/166 |
1.33 |
1.34 |
1.34 |
1.34 |
1.35 |
1.35 |
1.50% |
|
|
4Mx16/166 |
3.93 |
3.95 |
3.95 |
3.96 |
3.97 |
3.97 |
1.02% |
|
|
8Mx16/133 |
4.07 |
4.08 |
4.07 |
4.07 |
4.08 |
4.08 |
0.25% |
|
|
16Mx16/133 |
5.05 |
5.05 |
5.06 |
5.06 |
5.08 |
5.08 |
0.59% |
|
|
16Mx8/133 |
4.65 |
4.64 |
4.64 |
4.64 |
4.67 |
4.67 |
0.43% |
|
|
32Mx8/133 |
5.17 |
5.15 |
5.15 |
5.14 |
5.19 |
5.18 |
0.19% |
