DDR get support with the limited supply
From the beginning of February, the trading activities for DDR 256Mb 32Mx8 400/333/266 MHz turned slow and prices remained flat for one week. Some traders lost patience and tried to sell their inventory for profit taking on February 9,thus, dragged the prices down 3% to 5%. The DDR prices rebounded after hit the lows on February 12 and get support with the limited supply in the spot market. The market resumed its positive trade in the recognition of the news that some DRAM makers have stopped shipments to the spot market for their output to be booked by PC OEMs. Besides, UTT’s offer to the spot market is limited. The marketers turn more positive for the market pricing trend and are more willing to keep inventory on-hand instead of dumping to the market.
In varied regional market, USA market mainly looks for DDR 32Mx8 400MHz. Taiwan and Hong Kong markets demand for DDR 32Mx8 333 MHz and in China market, the most popular item is DDR 32Mx8 266 MHz. From 2/10/2004 to 2/17/2004, the average price for DDR 32Mx8 400MHz was down from $4.64 to $4.37 and rebounded to $4.44. DDR 32Mx8 333MHz dropped from $4.21 to $4.05 and up to $4.44. DDR 32Mx8 266MHz was traded down from $4.12 to $3.94 and up to $4.08.
We observe the supply is still the key determines the pricing trend in the spot market. The supply of DDR parts to the spot market is limited mainly by the higher capacity allocated to Nand flash, to pilot run on DDR2 and DDR 512Mb and the lower yield rate during migrating to 110nm process node. Besides, the demand from PC OEMs is better in February which is usually the lowest demand month of the first quarter. The good demand from PC OEMs should be supported by the increased memory density installed per PC and the corporate orders.
Strong demand boosted SDRAM prices further higher
SDRAM 2Mx32 and 4Mx16 are still in shortage and the pricing upward momentum remains strong. These two items have remained on hot traded list for months and seem no signs to be down in the short term. According to our survey, the output for SDRAM has increased, but mainly for 256Mb 32Mx8. For 4Mx16, the increased output is not significant and the supply remains tight.
Contract prices for 2H February to be flat or slightly up
In this run of negotiation, both parties of DRAM makers and PC OEMs seem stand firm for their own positions. DRAM makers try to push the lows up and PC OEMs try to drag the price down a bit for the soften spot prices on past week. It may take time for the final prices settled. We project the contract prices for 2H February will be settled mainly at $33 for 256MB DIMM.
|
|
2004/2/10 |
2004/2/11 |
2004/2/12 |
2004/2/13 |
2004/2/16 |
2004/2/17 |
Change |
|
DDR |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
32Mx8/400 |
4.64 |
4.44 |
4.37 |
4.38 |
4.44 |
4.44 |
-4.50% |
|
32Mx8/333 |
4.21 |
4.09 |
4.05 |
4.05 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
-0.24% |
|
32Mx8/266 |
4.12 |
3.98 |
3.94 |
3.94 |
4.08 |
4.08 |
-1.01% |
|
SDRAM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1Mx16/166 |
1.18 |
1.18 |
1.18 |
1.18 |
1.19 |
1.19 |
0.85% |
|
4Mx16/166 |
3.36 |
3.37 |
3.38 |
3.4 |
3.46 |
3.48 |
3.56% |
|
8Mx16/133 |
3.72 |
3.79 |
3.79 |
3.8 |
3.81 |
3.82 |
2.64% |
|
16Mx16/133 |
5.15 |
5.1 |
5.09 |
5.09 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
-0.98% |
|
16Mx8/133 |
4.33 |
4.4 |
4.42 |
4.43 |
4.45 |
4.5 |
3.86% |
|
32Mx8/133 |
5.97 |
5.91 |
5.93 |
5.94 |
5.94 |
5.93 |
-0.68% |
