DRAMeXchange: USB3.0 will heat on in 2011

USB 3.0 will turn to the mainstream transfer interface in 2011 and gradually replace USB 2.0 given 1.)  Technology maturity in either “Host” side or “Device” side. 2.) Cost and price reduction in chipset and related components. 3.) The positive support from Intel and AMD. From technology side, USB3.0 can achieve two-way transmission through 2 pairs SDP, providing as much as 900 milliampere (mA), equipping with intelligent power management. The theoretical raw bandwidth gap between USB3.0 and USB2.0 will be around 10 times while transfer speed will be faster by 5 times. That is, USB3.0 is the perfect solution for those potential demands for HD multi-media and large file transferring since it can reduce the transferring time significantly. We expect USB3.0 application will trigger the strong shipment growth momentum in 2011.

From “Host” side, current mainstream USB3.0 host controller vendor is still Renesas (former known as NEC). High-end motherboard or desktop products are still the main target in 2010 along with below 10% USB3.0 penetration rate for notebook. However, we think USB3.0 penetration will be significantly raised if USB3.0 penetration in notebook can be pulled up since notebook shipment has accounted around 60% of total PC shipment. According to our check, 2011 new models will be equipped with USB3.0 with the aggressive attitude from Taiwanese vendors and price cut from Renesas. At the meantime, Intel announced to put USB3.0 in the new platform reference design in IDF. We expect USB3.0 penetration in system products will be more mature and penetration will be raised up given the supportive help from CPU vendors.

From the application side in UFD, the USB3.0 UFD capacity is expected to be pulled up to 8GB from 4GB in 2011 while transfer speed will be around double or triple of USB2.0 UFD. With better cost/performance and higher capacity (500GB will become the mainstream spec in 2011), portable HDD are aimed by consumers that since demand for large-size files and high-definition multimedia will be triggered. We expect the replacement effect is positive toward NAND Flash consumption and USB3.0 will be the spotlight in UFD and portable HDD industry.

According to DRAMeXchange, USB3.0 penetration in desktop and notebook will be up to 60% and 50% respectively in 2011 given the mature price and product while penetration will be likely be raised up higher if price deduction and ecosystem for other hardware can be more accelerated. USB3.0 will become the mainstream interface just like current USB2.0 in 2012 when both Intel and AMD embed USB3.0 in their chipset. Besides the application in PC field, we also think USB3.0 can be a potential suitable interface for consumer electronics since digital home concept and synchronized functionality for varies device are highly required and popular in design.