Still Optimistic on price trend

:: Prices keep soaring up this week.

The overshooting price premium between DDR 256Mb 400MHz and DDR 256MHz 333MHz/266MHz has been stopping the uptick price for 400MHz and beginning to narrow the premium by steadily rising on 333MHz and 266MHz prices. We observed some traders are profit taking on 400MHz and switching to 333MHz/266MHz for pricing arbitrage. However, the strong 333MHz/266MHz prices will push up 400MHz prices as well once the premium narrow down to $0.5 level.

:: DRAM makers label higher prices to spot market.

Recently, some official offering prices from DRAM makers are much higher than current spot trading prices due to their allocation policy to the spot market (or intending to raise the spot prices?). Spot markers feel the limited supply from DRAM makers and begin to sell conservatively on volume in order to keep the sufficient stock for higher margin in coming week.

:: Still look good on 400MHz.

Despite DRAM content per box might be dropped down by single channel function chipset, spot marketers are welcome new 800MHz FSB chipsets to be ready on market to really boost 400MHz demand to continue the price trend. However the dilemma between price and performance will ceil 400MHz's prices and limit the adoption volume. (Usually memory budget will be limited within 10% of system price.) Therefore, single channel might provide a solution, or marketers will alternatively adopt 333MHz.

:: Update - Apr. 23th's "P4 FSB 800MHz supporting chipset table".

Official List Price (reference only): SiS single channel serials are around $26~$27; VIA single channel serials are also around $26~27. Intel 865 G is $40, 865GV will be $34, 865PE is $34, 865P is $32 and 848P will be $31.

:: Inventory level

Inventory in DRAM makers side are below 2 weeks. Module makers are higher than 1 month. Distributors can hold around 1 month level. Traders are within 2 to 4 weeks depending on their turnover. As demand is still on improving situation, current inventory level is still quite health.