DRAM supply to spot market shrink significantly to support DDR2 1Gb price up further

DRAM spot prices have moved up more than 15% from the average $0.95 on April 13th to $1.13 on April 16th after the marketers learned that the major eTT suppliers Powerchip and Elpida won’t release DRAM chips to spot market in the short term and tried to accumulate their inventory higher.
The 1Gb eTT chip average price has even reached $1.2 on April 16th.

A news circuited in DRAM spot market last week that Elpida has decided to stop the shipment to spot market including the biggest customer, Kingston and Powerchip also will limit the volume shipped to lowest level to the spot market till June ’09 and it boosted the speculation demand in the spot market and pushed the 1Gb eTT spot prices to reach $1.2.

According to DRAMeXchange’s survey, the market share of Elpida and Powerchip in spot market accounts near 60% including their shipment to the biggest DRAM module house, Kingston Technology and marketers believe that the further limit of shipment to spot market can help the DDR2 1Gb price moving up to $1.5 in June or Q309. Though Hynix and Nanya will still release chips to spot market but the volume is expected to be low as well in order to keep the upward momentum.

DDR2 contract prices moves up 6% -10% in 2H April

DRAM makers have claimed that they’ve successfully raised the 2H April contract prices 6% to 10% higher from the range of $16 to $18 per 2GB module to the range of $17 to $20. Meanwhile, they also admitted that they have fixed one month deal for April with a few PC OEMs customers whose prices keep unchanged. DRAM makers have targeted to move 2GB lowest price to $20 which is about$1.06/1Gb in May or June ’09. However, PC OEMs have claimed that they’ve built high inventory around 6 to 8 weeks and don’t expect a soaring price in the near term.

According to DRAMeXchange’s checking, the DRAM supply and demand has reached balance after DRAM markers cut more and more capacity. The spot prices will move up from the range of $1.0 - $1.2 to the range of $1.2 - $1.5 as the supply shrinks sharply and to lead the contract prices up toward $1.2 in Q309.