What you will bet on - up or down?

This is a tough question especially while you all hear no good news for supporting the price up yet.

Traditional Seasonal Pattern

Motherboard's shipment number for June seems not reach the original prediction (around 7~10% MoM growth), probably will fall into around 4~5% MoM growth rate or even lower. PC shipment number is also not exciting people plus new HPI(HP+Compaq) restructures her product lines. The first half of July still looks flat, most Motherboard companies predict August and September will be better.

Not really serious dumping on quarter end and 1/2 year end.

Although this week is the quarter end and 1/2 year end for Taiwanese companies and so do Korea companies. We don't find the serious dumping on market. Reasons: 1. Holding spot price for negotiating July's contract to stop falling again. 2. Coming traditional hot season, no matter it's going to be good or so so; there still has the first shipment to the channels and refill inventory demand. 3.Anti-competition issue and sue issue make more conservative action.

Price looks tight this week.

Overall market was pretty active last week, the volume increased along with the price raised last week. This week, the weak US dollar makes the exporting price stick high to avoid the loss from exchange rate. Price will be hold around current level for this week.

Anticipation

DRAM market never has long term flat; it always has upside or downside. The difference is just big wave or small wave. Now, marketers stand in front of the 3Q and anticipate there should be a wave although there are no good evidences to support the big wave, they still prepare to surfer in the coming small wave which is not difficult to make the trend if all the marketers move in the same direction to make the trend up.