AI Inference Drives CPU and DDR5 Demand, with High-Capacitance MLCC Shortages Expected to Persist Through 1H27, Says TrendForce

TrendForce's latest MLCC industry research shows that the rapid evolution of AI applications from model training to inference and AI agents is driving a new wave of CPU demand. Since each CPU requires accompanying power modules and DDR5 memory, the proliferation of these components is driving a substantial increase in high-capacitance MLCC requirements across CPU motherboards and memory modules. This is placing mounting pressure on the supply of standard high-capacitance MLCCs.

Shipments of NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform are expected to ramp up month by month beginning in 4Q26, and AMD is starting to procure specialized high-capacitance MLCCs for its MI450 platform. As a result, ODMs anticipate that shortages of high-end MLCCs will be most severe in 1Q27 and 2Q27.

In stark contrast, the consumer electronics market continues to grapple with subdued demand as AI applications command a growing share of production capacity, pushing up the cost of memory and other critical components, and, in turn, driving end-product prices higher.

TrendForce’s research indicates major notebook ODMs expect orders to decline by an average of 10–15% YoY in 4Q26, while smartphone brands are similarly scaling back shipments of entry-level and midrange models.

Spot prices for low- to mid-capacitance consumer-grade MLCCs slipped approximately 5% in early October before finding a temporary floor, while price increases for high-end specifications have begun to lose momentum. Nevertheless, supply constraints remain pronounced for AI-grade MLCCs, with shortages now extending to communications-grade components used in optical communication modules.

Adding to these supply-side pressures is the persistent rise in material and logistics costs. Japan’s import price index, for instance, surged 24.5% YoY in September, with nickel, copper, and silver—essential materials used in MLCC electrodes—especially exposed to escalating costs.

Murata executives have acknowledged that existing production capacity falls far short of market requirements, prompting the company to bring forward its expansion plans. However, even with this accelerated investment, new capacity is unlikely to come online before 2028, leaving little prospect of meaningful near-term supply relief.

TrendForce expects the high-end MLCC shortage to extend through 1H27, allowing suppliers to retain the upper hand in pricing negotiations. With discussions over 1Q27 price scheduled to begin in November 2026, Japanese manufacturers appear increasingly likely to follow Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO) in implementing price increases. Meanwhile, Taiwanese and Chinese suppliers are expected to keep benefiting from spillover orders for consumer-grade MLCCs.